Weather outlook: A dry, warm summer ahead for district

A dry, warm summer awaits Potchefstroom and its residents. This is the prediction of Professor Hector Chikoore, an associate professor at North-West University (NWU), who specialises in meteorology, climatology and climate change.

Based on his expertise and his observation of Potchefstroom’s winter months in 2020, which were characterised by especially cold days, Chikoore predicted a dry, warm summer for the area.

This means that Potchefstroom, a region that relies on summer rainfall, could be entering a drought. In turn, this could negatively affect many people who rely on agriculture and farming as their main source of income. In addition, it could threaten food security in the community.

“Most studies on climate trends have found and projected a delay in the onset of the summer rainy season over southern Africa due to drying in the spring, which implies a longer dry season, with consequences for fire management and agriculture,” Chikoore said.

Raymond Boardman, a third generation farmer in the Potchefstroom region, believes a dry summer along with the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic could result in a breakdown of Potchefstroom’s agricultural and farming community, which will have a lasting effect.

“The agricultural sector is the most vulnerable to the effects of drought. A drought directly affects the production of crops, both in terms of quantity and quality. A severe drought this year would mean the end of many farms, which will result in a bigger need for food security and the loss of many jobs,” Boardman said.

The early months of the warmer season have already seen temperatures sky rocket in Potchefstroom with the town experiencing an earlier than usual first heat wave. Hendre Oosthuizen, an agriculture soil science and agronomy student at NWU, believes that the heat wave is a sign of things to come.

“I think the extreme heat that Potchefstroom is currently experiencing will have a negative effect on the agricultural industry because most farmers cannot effectively prepare the lands for the rainy season. The early heat wave usually also means a dry summer will follow,” the 20-year-old student said.

Mabel Schoeman, a crop bacteria tester at Senwes, believes that a dry summer could mean the loss of even more agricultural land as Potchefstroom continues to expand and grow in size.

“Agricultural land conversion is a term used to describe agricultural land that isn’t suitable for growing anymore that gets sold to accommodate the population. Whenever a severe drought happens, pieces of valuable agricultural land are chipped away and sold for housing purposes,” Schoeman said.

There is some hope, however, as noted by Chikoore. He revealed that the winter rainfall regions of South Africa received significant volumes of rainfall in 2020, which is excellent news for dam levels, agricultural activities and water supply for the rest of South Africa, a statement Oosthuizen echoed.

“Due to the rain that South Africa’s winter rainfall regions experienced and even other parts of our country dam levels have increased substantially and this can only be beneficial for the entire agricultural industry,” Oosthuizen said. – Adriaan Meintjies, Heinrich Mueller, Michael Stoop

Tags: Weather, heat waves, agriculture, farming, drought