South Africa’s dropout dilemma: fact-checking Independent Online’s claims about pass rates
South Africa’s education system is often criticised for its poor outcomes, but one alarming statistic published in an article by news website Independent Online (IOL) may have raised a few eyebrows.
In January 2024, then basic education minister Angie Motshekga announced that a record 82.9% of students who sat for the national senior certificate (NSC) exams in 2023 had passed. The NSC, known as matric, is South Africa’s school-leaving certificate.
However, taking into account the students who dropped out before reaching grade 12, some critics have arrived at a pass rate they believe is more accurate.
“No less than 40% of students drop out before reaching grade 12,” the August 2024 IOL article reads. “Girls make up the vast bulk of this group.” This is due to cultural and societal expectations, pregnancy, and health difficulties, it continues.
However, the article does not provide a source for the claims. So what does the data show?
Calculating dropout rates
The March 2024 Focus on Schooling report, published by government agency Statistics South Africa and the Department of Basic Education, calculated the dropout rate by counting the number of students who finished a particular grade but did not continue their education beyond that point (and were assumed to have dropped out).
As shown in the table below, the dropout rate for learners born between 1996 and 1998 (and surveyed between 2020 and 2022) was 0.2% when they entered grade 1. This figure increased with each grade, gradually at first and then quite sharply from grade 9 onwards.
The education department pays particular attention to grade 7, the level the department uses as a measure of literacy, grade 9, the final year of compulsory education, and grade 12, the completion of the cohort’s basic education.
The department also argued that focusing only on the dropout rate ignored various factors that led to a decline in the number of students, particularly children repeating grades.
The survival rate – the percentage of a cohort of students enrolled in the first grade in a given school year who are expected to reach a given grade – gives a better indication of the proportion of young people who eventually pass matric.
For students born between 1996 and 1998 (and surveyed between 2020 and 2022), the survival rate was 99.4% when they entered grade 1. This figure decreased with each grade, especially from grade 9 onwards.
Not a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’
Martin Gustafsson, an education economist at Stellenbosch University, said the response to such a claim would not be a simple “yes” or “no”. The confusion began, he said, because of students who were not counted. For example, those who did not reach grade 12 might have instead attended a technical and vocational education and training college or received an amended senior certificate after leaving school.
For the reasons outlined above, we rate the claim that “no less than 40% of students drop out before reaching grade 12” as misleading.
But what about the claim that most of the students who drop out are girls?
‘Anecdotal’ claim about girls’ drop-out rates
We contacted the journalist who wrote the IOL article to ask for supporting evidence. She attributed the dropout rate to the Department of Education but said the claim about girls was anecdotal, meaning it was based on personal observation or experience rather than thorough research or empirical evidence.
We also made multiple attempts to contact Elijah Mhlanga, the Department of Education’s spokesperson, to get a gender breakdown of the dropout rate and have yet to receive a response.
Girls tend to outperform boys
The performance results in the 2023 NSC Report indirectly told us that girls are dropping out less than boys, Gustafsson said. Of the students who sat the exam, 403,595 were girls, while 312,124 were boys. Of those who passed, 322,874 were girls, while 250,109 were boys.
Gustafsson also referred us to a 2017 report titled The Martha Effect, by education researchers Nic Spaull and Hendrik van Broekhuizen. It showed that female learners tended to outperform their male counterparts in cross-national assessments across grades and subjects.
The researchers used population-wide panel data to follow every South African student from the 2008 cohort as they entered into and progressed through university, and found that fewer girls repeated grades or dropped out, leading to more matric passes. Female matriculants were also more likely to attend and graduate from university.
Publicly available evidence does not support the claim that the majority of students who drop out of school before reaching grade 12 are girls.
Conclusion: Claims on news site about NSC pass rates and girls’ drop-out rates misleading and anecdotal
An article published by IOL claimed that 40% of South African school children drop out before reaching grade 12 and that girls make up the vast bulk of this group.
The first claim is misleading as it ignores various factors that lead to a decline in the number of students, particularly students repeating grades. The education department prefers to look at survival rates, which give a better indication of the proportion of young people who eventually pass matric.
The journalist who wrote the article said the second claim about girls dropping out at higher rates than boys was anecdotal. Publicly available evidence does not support her assertion. The claim is therefore incorrect.
This report was written by Fortunate Nkosi, a third-year student of North-West University’s School of Communication, as part of a mentorship programme by Africa Check, the continent’s first independent fact-checking organisation. The programme, funded by the United Nations Democracy Fund (UNDEF), aims to foster the practice of fact-checking across the continent.