Mid to low election turnout predicted

As the nation gears up for the 2024 elections, a political analyst delivers a sobering assessment: voter turnout has plummeted by 43% since the 1999 elections.

“I expect voter turnout to be mid-to-low. This is because South Africa has been experiencing a decline in voter turnout in recent elections,” said Naledi Modise, a lecturer in political studies and international relations on the North-West University’s Mahikeng campus.

“In the 2019 elections, total voter turnout was 66%. Comparing it with the 1999 turnout, this was a 23% drop in turnout. That means South Africans are dropping out of the electoral system at higher rates than in established and emerging democracies,” she said.

She said a good voter turnout is based on the type of political system and history of a country. “In established democracies, low voter turnout indicates relative stability whereas in emerging democracies such as ours, low voter turnout indicates regression and decline in the acceptance of democratic values and is considered a threat to political stability,” Modise said. “Therefore, the higher the voter turnout the better for South Africa.”

Modise said there has been strong mobilisation of youth voters in these elections. However, this is not unique as similar campaigns existed in 2014, and 2019 and did not yield much success. “Young people have not participated in elections as much as their older counterparts,” she said.

According to Statistics South Africa, people aged 18-34 constitute 35%, or 20.9 million, of the population. Based on these statistics and according to the Electoral Commission of South Africa, only 11.7 million voters in this cohort are on the voter roll. This is about 9.2 million of the population.

Modise added that in South Africa voter outcomes are mainly driven by the 29-45 age cohort. “South Africa is a youthful country with over 63.3% of the population made up of individuals in the 15-34 age category,” she said.

Modise said she expects the trend to remain the same in these elections. “However, I do believe that with the proliferation of social media, there is heightened political interest from the youth and not from other stakeholders such as civil society and political parties. Therefore, I expect that there should be higher political participation from young people.”

She said she expects young people to inherit the political systems they make up in the current democracy; their role is continuity. “If they don’t believe in democracy, they are very susceptible to more authoritarian beliefs which may lead to a regression in the democracy of the states where they are.”

Modise said the skewness of South Africa’s population distribution toward this age category means that, as the country’s economic woes deepen, the disproportionate brunt thereof is endured by the youth. “If you consider unemployment, 43% of young people are unemployed. This creates a domino effect on the widening and deepening inequality and poverty, meaning young people in South Africa are facing a very bleak future, with little to no prospects of social upward mobility.”