Is South Africa losing more teachers than it produces? A closer look at Mmusi Maimane’s claim about basic education

In September 2024, South African politician Mmusi Maimane raised concerns about the country’s education system in a post on X (formerly Twitter). “We are producing 15 000 teachers a year and we are losing 18 000 teachers a year. We cannot succeed as a nation with failing schools and especially without teachers,” the post read.

The claim has been viewed more than 40,000 times, and sparked public debate, with some users questioning its accuracy. Maimane is a member of the parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Basic Education and has often publicly shared his views on the state of the South African education system.

But has he cited the correct figures here? We took a closer look.

Research into teacher numbers

According to the Department of Basic Education, to qualify as a teacher in South Africa, you need a four-year Bachelor of Education degree (or a three-year degree and a Postgraduate Certificate in Education) and to be registered with the South African Council for Educators.

Researchers can predict the future supply and demand of teachers based on current trends. Prof Martin Gustafsson conducted research into this as part of Stellenbosch University’s Teacher Demographic Dividend (TDD) project. We contacted him about the latest data.

Gustafsson directed us to a 2023 report he authored about teacher supply and demand. He said that in 2024, around 24,000 publicly paid educators were expected to leave. But, as one graph in the report shows, universities are projected to produce around 28,000 teacher graduates in 2024, down from around 31,000 in 2023, 2022, and 2021.

This suggests that Maimane’s figures of 15,000 teachers produced and 18,000 lost are underestimates.

However, Gustafsson explained that while 28,000 new teacher graduates are “produced”, this is not the same as the number who enter the labour force. The number of new teachers entering the labour force aligns with Maimane’s estimate of 15,000.

Gustafsson also clarified that while 24,000 teachers leave the profession each year, many “return after a year or so.” The number includes temporary exits, such as for maternity leave or sabbaticals, as well as a substantially lower number of permanent exits. 

As many of these educators return to the profession, many of the 28,000 new graduates will ultimately not be absorbed into the labour force, resulting in only 15,000 new graduates entering the labour force.

This is attributed to factors like slow placements of new teachers, poor planning, inadequate preparation of teachers, and challenging working environments.

When asked about the veracity of the claim, Gustafsson said: “The evidence strongly suggests we currently do not have a situation where more teachers leave the profession each year than graduate from universities.”

Moreover, an article published by the South African Government News Agency in October 2023 states that around 31,000 teachers graduate per year, while about 18,000 to 21,000 are absorbed into the public sector, similar to Gustafsson’s estimates.

Class sizes and teacher quality

In another report, Gustafsson wrote that “teacher supply, at this specific juncture, no longer appears to be the overarching constraint.”

While ensuring there were enough new graduates was important, he wrote that there had been a substantial increase over the years, partly due to bursary programmes and relatively low entrance requirements for these degrees. 

He suggests that even with a significant number of retirements, the supply of new teachers will likely be sufficient to meet future demand, provided that the current trends in teacher production continue.

While the figures do not indicate a higher demand than the supply of teachers produced, substantial challenges remain in the education system regarding teacher numbers, including large class sizes and the quality of teacher training.

Research by Stellenbosch University’s Research on Socio-Economic Policy (RESEP) indicates that South African high schools have an average learner-to-teacher ratio of 35:1, and primary schools have an average of 40:1. High learner-to-teacher ratios can affect the quality of education and place additional stress on both teachers and learners.

According to the RESEP report, “class size data shows that approximately half of primary school learners are in classes of more than 40 learners.” This results in more teachers being needed not only to replace retiring teachers but also to reduce class sizes.

Low entrance requirements for teaching qualifications have raised concerns about the quality of graduates produced. Many teacher graduates are not fully prepared to handle the demands of the classroom, and this may contribute to high rates of teacher burnout and attrition, as one expert noted in a 2023 article.

Conclusion

While there are significant challenges in South Africa’s education system, the available data suggests that Maimane’s figures are not accurate. Experts say that South Africa is not losing more teachers than it produces every year. Rather, persistent challenges of large class sizes, financial constraints and concerns around the preparedness of new teachers threaten the education system’s ability to meet the needs of its learners.

This report was written by Lesiba Dikhoba, a third-year student at North-West University’s School of Communication, as part of a mentorship programme by Africa Check, the continent’s first independent fact-checking organisation. The programme, funded by the United Nations Democracy Fund (UNDEF), aims to foster the practice of fact-checking across the continent.