Do 40% of South Africa’s university students fail to complete their degrees?

In August 2024, South African advocacy group Youth Capital posted an alarming statistic to X (formerly Twitter): “It is estimated that over 40% of all first-year students in South Africa do not complete their degrees.”

The group’s Digital Strategist, Fentse Malatji, shared the statistic in a radio interview with the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) and repeated the claim during a televised interview posted to the SABC’s YouTube channel (see image below).

We took a closer look at the numbers.

Claim attributed to the Council on Higher Education

We contacted Youth Capital about the source of the claim. They directed us to a 2021 report by the Council on Higher Education (CHE), an independent statutory body that manages quality assurance in South African higher education.

The report presented key statistics for throughput in public and private higher education. According to the CHE, this refers to how many students who started their degree in a specific year (called a cohort) went on to graduate within a certain number of years.

The report looked at the cohort of first-time students enrolling at public and private South African institutions in three-year degrees in 2016, excluding data from the country’s largest distance-learning institution, the University of South Africa (Unisa). In-person and distance learning are often analysed separately since throughput patterns differ.

In this group, 38% of the students had not graduated by 2021, with most failing to graduate by 2018 (31% of the cohort). This figure is slightly lower than the “over 40%” claimed. Youth Capital clarified that they round the percentage up when using it for media interviews.

For four-year degrees, the figure was lower, at 32% by 2021.      

Source: Council on Higher Education (CHE) 2021 report

Dropout and throughput rates for distance and contact institutions

Early government research into dropout rates shows similar findings. A report by the then Department of Education estimated that 25% of 59,000 students in the 2000 cohort dropped out of undergraduate studies at the end of their first year at university. By 2003, one-third of the cohort was still in the system but had not graduated, and 41% had dropped out.

We contacted Prof Moeketsi Letseka, who analysed these university dropout rates at the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC). When asked about this data compared to more recent findings, he said, ” The situation hasn’t changed or improved.”

However, the available statistics suggest that trends in throughput and dropout rates over time depend on which data is used and which institutions are included. The Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) provides a breakdown of trends in dropout and graduation rates for distance learning and contact (in-person) learning at public higher education institutions.

Dropout rates for distance learning are substantially higher, and graduation rates lower, than for contact learning. Though distance education is designed to increase access to higher education, “access does not guarantee performance”, as researchers recently wrote.

Researchers have suggested that distance learning students face specific challenges, like limited technology and internet access, digital and computer skills, and interaction with peers and educators. For distance learning, graduation rates after three years were almost the same in 2020 as in 2000, at under 5%. Students generally take longer to complete distance degrees, as they often need to balance studying with other commitments.

By year seven, 38.4% of the 2016 cohort had graduated, compared to 17.8%% for the 2000 cohort. While dropout rates also improved, they remained high, at 46% for the 2016 cohort.

For contact learning, dropout rates have also decreased since 2000, and graduation rates have increased. A third of students in the 2016 cohort had graduated by their third year, and this increased to three-quarters by year 7. Dropout rates were similar between years 3 and 7 for this cohort, at 14-18%.

While statistics vary depending on which qualifications, institutions and time periods are analysed, the problem of university students not completing their degrees is evident in South Africa.

Why do first-year students not complete their degrees?

Dr Birgit Schreiber, an expert in student affairs and higher education said that the claim did make sense. She explained that there are various reasons for low completion and high dropout rates: “Dropout figures include students who are excluded on academic and financial grounds, and those who drop out in good academic and financial standing”.

News articles frequently mention financial exclusion as a key reason students drop out. Financial exclusion refers to students’ inability to secure financial resources to pursue their education, such as money for tuition fees, accommodation, and a living allowance.

In a 2021 study, researchers used statistical methods to predict the factors linked with dropout rates at one South African university. They found that demographics, specifically race, was an important predictor of dropouts, as it is associated with factors like income, schooling quality, and first-generation university entrance. 

Government funding to address financial barriers

Financial aid is essential for student retention, according to Thandi Lewin, a higher education scholar, who was previously responsible for oversight of the National Student Financial Aid Scheme (NSFAS) operations. To address economic barriers, NSFAS, a government body, is tasked with providing financial assistance to students who need it.

This includes payments towards tuition, textbooks, accommodation and living expenses. According to NSFAS, the body has funded about five million students, and funds over 60% of students in public universities. 

According to Lewin, studies by the Department of Higher Education show that NSFAS-funded students have a dropout rate 10 percentage points lower than their peers and an 8 percentage point higher throughput rate.

However, NSFAS has faced various challenges, is often unable to meet students’ needs, and is currently under administration.

According to Schreiber, “Finances play a role in many ways.” Academic performance, institutional climate, and rent in areas situated next to the universities were also important factors.

Conclusion

Some of the existing data supports the claim that over 40% of first-year students in South Africa do not complete their degrees, but statistics vary depending on which institutions, qualifications, time periods, and types of learning are included. While the situation has, in some cases, improved since the 2000s, South Africa still faces high dropout and low graduation rates, often as a result of financial exclusion.

This report was written by Boitumelo Precious Mokhantso, a journalism honours student at North-West University, as part of a mentorship programme by Africa Check, the continent’s first independent fact-checking organisation. The programme, funded by the United Nations Democracy Fund (UNDEF), aims to foster the practice of fact-checking across the continent.