Covid-19 will spread slower in Africa than rest of the world – WHO

More than 190 000 people could lose their lives to Covid-19 in Africa, warned the World Health Organisation (WHO) yesterday in Brazzavile, Congo, in a virtual press conference.

There are now more than 51 000 confirmed cases, with 2 000 people having lost their lives. Almost 1 000 African health workers have been infected with Covid-19 across the African continent, said the WHO. 

A new study by the WHO estimates that up to 190 000 people in Africa could die of Covid-19 and 29 million to 44 million could get infected in the first year of the pandemic if containment measures fail.

The study was tabled by Dr Matshidiso Moeti, the WHO Regional Director for Africa. The research, which is based on prediction modelling, looks at 47 countries in the WHO African Region, with a total population of one billion, she said.

The new estimates are based on modifying the risk of transmission and disease severity by variables specific to each country, in order to adjust for the unique nature of the region.

According to the model there will be an observed slower rate of transmission, compared to what is seen in the most affected countries in the rest of the world, said Dr Moeti. This is largely driven by social and environmental factors slowing the transmission, and a younger population who benefitted from previous control of communicable diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis. This has helped reduce possible vulnerabilities.

“The lower rate of transmission, however, suggests a more prolonged outbreak over a few years, according to the study, which also revealed that smaller African countries alongside Algeria, South Africa and Cameroon were at a high risk if containment measures are not prioritised,” Moeti said.

“While Covid-19 likely won’t spread as exponentially in Africa as it has elsewhere in the world, it likely will smoulder in transmission hotspots. Covid-19 could become a fixture in our lives for the next several years, unless a proactive approach is taken by many governments in the region. We need to test, trace, isolate and treat,” said Dr Moeti.

She said the predicted number of cases that would require hospitalisation would overwhelm the available medical capacity in much of Africa. She said there would be an estimated 3.6 million to 5.5 million Covid-19 hospitalisations, of which 82 000 to 167 000 would be severe cases requiring oxygen, and 52 000 to 107 000 would be critical cases requiring breathing support. “Such a huge number of patients in hospitals would severely strain the health capacities of countries,” Dr Moeti said.

Dr Moeti announced these new projections during the WHO Africa Media Leader virtual press conference Thursday, which was held with the support of the World Economic Forum. The other speakers were Dr Amit Thakker, Executive Chairman of Africa Health Business and President of the Africa Healthcare Federation, and Stephen Karingi, Director of Regional Trade and Integration, Economic Commission for Africa.

According to Johns Hopkins University, the countries with the most cases in Africa are currently South Africa. with 8 232 confirmed cases, Egypt, with 7 981 confirmed cases, Morocco, with 5 548 confirmed cases and Algeria, with 5 182 confirmed cases.

According to the SA Coronavirus website, preventative tips include washing hands regularly with soap and water or an alcohol-based hand sanitiser, to avoid touching your eyes, ears, nose and mouth with unwashed hands, to avoid close contact with people who are sick, covering your cough or sneeze with a flexed elbow or tissue, and then throwing the tissue in the bin. You should also clean and disinfect frequently-touched objects and surfaces.